What Have We Learned from Mueller’s Flynn Memo?

New court filings by Special Counsel Robert Mueller reveal that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty last year to lying to the FBI, has been cooperating with Mueller in a number of investigations – including Mueller’s investigation into contact between Trump’s transition team and Russia. The document is heavily redacted due to the ongoing nature of the investigations. Here’s what we can glean from what’s available:

First off, Mueller is quite happy with Flynn’s cooperation — happy enough to recommend that he serve no prison time. (This is a notable contrast to the positively scathing memo Mueller’s team wrote about George Papadopoulos, in which they said he did not provide “substantial assistance” and complained that he talked to the press.) Second, Flynn is cooperating in not one but three different investigations — Mueller’s investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, a separate criminal probe, and a third investigation of some kind.

Former national security advisor Michael Flynn has given special counsel Robert Mueller “first-hand” details of contacts between President Donald Trump’s transition team and Russian government officials, a bombshell court document filed Tuesday says.

[The memo] doesn’t implicate the president in any wrongdoing. The memo isn’t a “smoking gun” showing President Trump colluded with Russians to win the 2016 presidential election or did anything else illegal. In fact, the memo isn’t even a squirt gun. In terms of President Trump’s conduct, it amounts to nothing of any significance.

How Will Bibi’s Fate Be Decided? And by Whom?

What will happen with Prime Minister Netanyahu? Recent political events have proven the PM to be a peerless political leader with no real rivals posing a threat to his leadership. Still, there’s the likelihood of his being indicted in a number of bribery and corruption investigations to consider. The whole country is anxious to know Bibi’s fate and wondering who gets to decide. More at NPR.

Voters and readers have the right, perhaps the power, to promote more visibility and accountability from those for whom they vote and whose news they read or view. But police and prosecutors should not intrude on this complex, messy and nuanced relationship between politics and the media, except in cases of clear and unambiguous financial corruption well beyond what is alleged in the current cases. So, let Netanyahu continue his important work. If Israelis don’t like what he is doing, they can vote against him.

…democracy gets increasingly harder to sustain when one leader has been in power for well over a decade. Israel’s attorney general, Avichai Mendelblit, needs to keep this in mind when he decides whether to follow the police recommendation and order the prime minister’s indictment. This is not the time for the official charged with legal enforcement to subordinate the rule of law to political considerations. The attorney general’s job should be straight forward in this instance: If the evidence is strong, Netanyahu should be indicted.

In the coming weeks, Netanyahu will have to make the most important decision in his life. Since he has never really fought for peace but limited himself to maintaining the status quo, his upcoming decision will be a dramatic one; it will determine the way in which the Netanyahu era will come to an end, if indeed it does end. Will he drag Israel into a state of internal chaos? Or will he relax his grip on power and instead try to extricate himself from the imbroglio with minimum damage to all the parties involved? Will Netanyahu try to continue to serve as prime minister during the trial, or will he direct his efforts at a plea bargain?

An Inverted Yield Curve: What Does It Mean & Should You Worry?

Investors are spooked because the “yield curve” is close to inverting. An inverted yield curve is when long-term debt yields are lower than shorter maturity debt. Historically, an inverted curve has been an early indicator of a recession on the horizon. Is that the case now? More at Fortune.

…yield curve inversions [are] an unusually reliable indicator of coming downturns. “Any inversion of any sort is a surefire sign of a recession,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the Wall Street Journal in July. The good news, to an extent, is that inversions are also a very early warning system. Most leading indicators of recessions show up six months to a year before the downturn hits. Yield curve inversions give you at minimum one year’s notice, and often as much as two or more.

The Cleveland Fed’s recession indicator, which measures the chances of an economic decline over the next 12 months, is currently at just 20.3 percent. However, as the curve has flattened the indicator has ticked higher, rising from 16.6 percent in October… Even then, there’s no certainty of a recession. Fed officials and some Wall Street strategists see a legitimate “this time is different” case for the yield curve.

Investing is dynamic. People learn. The yield curve has built up such a track record, and now receives so much attention, that it may not hold the same forecasting power it once did. It would be surprising if a forecast everyone used, worked in the same way as when just a few people looked at it. Equally, maybe broader knowledge of the potential power of an inverted yield curve may make it even more self-fulfilling. This is all to say that so much attention on a single indicator may be misplaced as relationships change over time, just as peoples’ behavior changes.

What’s the Significance of France’s “Yellow Vest” Protests?

The Yellow Vest protests in France began on November 17th in response to a planned price hike on fuel proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron as a means of lowering France’s carbon emissions. The protestors, many of them wearing fluorescent safety vests, organized online and are demanding greater recognition of the economic hardships faced by French citizens from the government. More at Al Jazeera.

The French President views stopping climate change as a grand legacy project, and he had hoped to use higher fuel taxes to discourage driving for the sake of slashing carbon emissions. It didn’t matter to him that French emissions already are very low on a per capita basis and further cuts to transport emissions would be extremely difficult to achieve. But this matters a great deal to lower-income rural voters whose use of cars for daily life and business was about to become much more expensive.

…the power of social media to quickly mobilize mass anger without any mechanism for dialogue or restraint is a danger to which a liberal democracy cannot succumb. Mr. Macron and the Parliament were democratically elected only 18 months ago, and the reforms they have been pursuing, both within France and in the European Union, and on the environmental front, were what they openly promised in those elections and what France needs.

A cornerstone of the French president’s efforts to fight climate change through far-sighted legislation, the levy had met the ire of citizens, especially in car-dependent exurbs and rural areas without public transportation. Diesel now costs about €1.5 a liter in France, or about $6.50 a gallon, and the proposed tax would raise that even higher. The protesters have said that whereas Macron is focused on the end of the world, they are simply focused on the end of the month.

Is It Acceptable for Religious Jews to Abstain from Vaccinating Their Kids?

Massive outbreaks of measles in Brooklyn have shed light on “anti-vaxxing” culture amongst Orthodox Jews, who often share similar views to other anti-Vaxxers, believing that vaccinations do more harm than the diseases they are intended to prevent. The outbreaks have renewed calls for universal vaccinations, but have also brought the question of Jewish law into the mix.

Several Jewish legal authorities have weighed in on requiring children to have vaccines or allowing religious exemptions for school children to avoid vaccination. Recently, in response to the outbreak of measles in the United States and Israel, many have called for universal vaccination. However, there still appears to be some resistance to requiring universal vaccination. One Jewish legal opinion written three years ago justified refusing vaccines on the grounds that the risks of contracting measles were low. These medical “claims” were erroneous then and are erroneous now.

[People] in the medical community, need to understand that these are good people, compassionate and caring parents, and intelligent. Their approach also comes from the heart, and incomplete knowledge. Therefore, when you tout all vaccines for all people with no side effects, they know that can’t be true, so they don’t believe anything you tell them. These people are genuinely worried that vaccinations can harm their children, more than the diseases they prevent. You need to acknowledge their fears, and educate truthfully.

Guarding your own health doesn’t only make sense, it’s actually a mitzvah. That means that even if you don’t want to do it, for whatever reason, you are still obligated to do so. The Torah is teaching us that our body is a gift from G‑d, and we are therefore not the owners of it and we can’t cause it any damage. It is not enough to deal with health issues as they arise; we must take precautions to avoid danger. The final chapter of the Code of Jewish Law emphasizes that “just as there is a positive commandment to build a guardrail around the perimeter of a rooftop lest someone fall, so too are we obligated to guard ourselves from anything that would endanger our lives

What Will Life Be Like in the Era of 5G?

At the Qualcomm Snapdragon Technology Summit in Maui, the world got a preview of what the next generation of mobile coverage will look like. 5G technology is not only going to be faster, experts say, but will expand the range of possibilities for what we can do with our hardware. Will it also put our health at risk? More at The Verge.

With the two telecom giants Verizon and AT&T now beginning to deploy 5G technology across the country, the metabolism of business, entertainment, education and health care will dramatically accelerate in the Next America, beginning around … 2020. Getting the most from artificial intelligence and machine learning — like deploying self-driving vehicles — requires quickly transmitting massive amounts of data with very low latency. We will have that capacity in the Next America. With 5G, a Hollywood movie that now takes six or seven minutes to download onto your iPad will take six or seven seconds and microsensors in your shirt will gather intelligence and broadcast vital signs to your doctor.

…public health experts, professors, and watchdog groups are increasingly concerned about the untested aspects that this next-gen cell network requires — including more cell towers and a constant chorus of higher-energy photons streaming through human bodies and dwellings. It’s a bit of a David and Goliath battle, as Big Telecom’s PR and marketing teams have been busy hyping the possibilities of 5G, while watchdog groups struggle to get funding for even meager studies into potential health effects.

The overall speed gains mean that phones will be better equipped to handle complex computing tasks in a fraction of the time they currently take. This could make advanced photography skills, artificial intelligence actions and augmented reality apps possible, all of which would take far too long to process on today’s phones. 5G technology will also allow driverless cars and buses to talk to each other. They’ll also be able to communicate with smart street lights and other vehicles on the road.

Roundtable Extra: Trump and the Jews

In David Rubin’s newest book Trump and the Jews, he explains the complicated nature of the small, but highly influential American Jewish community, its natural, yet uneasy relationship with the State of Israel, and the role of religious Jews (as well as Christians) in passionate support of Trump, and of Israel. It also explores the sharp American political divide, in which the role of American Jews is clearly evolving in ways that will surprise many objective observers. One thing is for sure – Donald J. Trump will continue to make headlines and the Jews will continue to be involved.

Here’s an excerpt:

“We have an interesting popular expression in Israel: “Is it good for the Jews?” Whenever something momentous happens in the world, that question can be heard in the streets of Israel. In fact, when Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu was elected prime minister years ago, one of his campaign slogans was, “Bibi – Good for the Jews.”

Many American Jews would find that expression appalling – after all, isn’t it excessively parochial to talk that way? Or perhaps paranoid? Those are actually very reasonable questions. Do the Jewish people, who have given so much to the betterment of civilization, actually care only about themselves?

The answer to all of those questions is a resolute “No”. After two thousand years of exile from the Land of Israel, the Jews have come home as a nation, returning to sovereignty in the Jewish homeland once again, but the trauma of our precarious existence in other people’s lands has caused us, by necessity, to view every event through the prism of our difficult history. It’s an essential survival skill that we have developed over the years. Exiled by the Romans from our country, subsequent mass beheadings of Jews on the Arabian Peninsula by Muslims, exiles and forced conversions in Spain and Portugal, followed by pogroms in Russia and the Holocaust in Europe – the threats to Jewish existence have always seemed ever-present. It certainly hasn’t been easy. Nonetheless, the Jewish people have survived all of this and have even returned, in fulfillment of biblical prophecy, to reestablish Israel as a nation in its ancestral land.

Many Jewish Americans identify as Jews by religion only and squirm at any mention of a Jewish nation, but most Israelis and many religious Jews in the United States would disagree, not seeing any contradiction between those two identities.

While not a Jew by any definition, Donald J. Trump is a New Yorker in the truest sense of the word. The accent, the style, the brashness, and the chutzpah – all stereotypes of the outer-borough New Yorkers – for good and for bad. The outer boroughs always radiated ethnicity, with a vast mix of immigrants from around the world. Trump’s parents descended from Germany and Scotland, but many of his neighbors in the borough of Queens were Jews with family roots in Russia, Poland, Romania, and other countries.

Trump’s deep connection with the Jewish people goes way back to his childhood and his father’s building projects in some very Jewish neighborhoods, but it continued in his own career as a developer of massive building projects in Manhattan and other venues, and it continues to this day. What president has ever had a Jewish convert daughter, a Jewish son-in-law, and Jewish grandchildren? All that being said, why are so many American Jews in a state of panic over his presidency? Why are so many Jews actively involved in opposing his presidency with a passion that is the polar opposite of what most Israeli Jews are feeling? Last but not least, why are so many American Orthodox Jews such enthusiastic supporters? How can we explain all of these seeming contradictions?

Just in the first half of his presidency, Trump has managed to be called virtually every curse spoken on the streets of his native New York City – from racist to sexist to anti-Semite and white supremacist. Can he really be an anti-Semite given his obvious respect and affection for the State of Israel? Can he really be an anti-Semite with all of his Jewish friends, family, and close business associates? Are those charges mere politically-based slander or is there substance to them? In Trump and the Jews, we will answer those questions as we explore the complexities of Donald J. Trump. Simultaneously, we will examine and try to understand the behavior and actions of the even more complex Jewish people, both in America and in Israel. Hopefully, by the end of Trump and the Jews, we will understand why so many Jews seem to instinctively hate Trump or love Trump. We will also understand why most Jews did not vote for him. These insights are invaluable for the many conservative or centrist Americans, who often are baffled by the Left-wing views of so many in the Jewish community, as reflected in ideological organizations like the ACLU, or in the passionately liberal elites of Hollywood. Most importantly, American Jews will read this book and will begin to base their opinions, for or against, on the reality of the Trump presidency, not on which political club they belong to. We Jews are known to be an intelligent, educated, and rational people, so especially for us, excessive name-calling and hyperbole should be inappropriate. In short, let’s explore the facts together, and then judge President Trump by the results of his presidency.”

David Rubin is a former mayor of Shiloh, Israel – in the region of Samaria, which together with Judea, is known to much of the world as the West Bank. He is founder and president of Shiloh Israel Children’s Fund (SICF) – dedicated to healing the trauma of child victims of terrorist attacks, as well as rebuilding the biblical heartland of Israel through the children. SICF was established after Rubin and his three-year-old son were wounded in a vicious terrorist attack while driving home from Jerusalem. Rubin vowed to retaliate – not with hatred, nor with anger, but with compassion – to create positive change for Israel and its children.

Rubin has become an unofficial spokesman for Israel and the biblical heartland of Israel, with his books that speak the truth about what’s really happening in Israel and the Middle East. Rubin also has written extensively about the Israel US relationship, as well as the very real threat of Jihadist Islam to Judeo-Christian civilization. These books have included, “The Islamic Tsunami: Israel and America in the Age of Obama”, and “Peace For Peace”.

Today’s Hot Issues

What Have We Learned from Mueller’s Flynn Memo? How Will Bibi’s Fate Be Decided? And by Whom? An Inverted Yield Curve: What Does It Mean & Should You Worry? What’s the Significance of France’s “Yellow Vest” Protests? Is It Acceptable for Religious Jews to Abstain from Vaccinating Their Kids? What Will Life Be Like in the Era of 5G? Roundtable Extra: Trump and the Jews