What Can We Learn from Last Minute Polls?
Here are three takes on the results from last minute election polls:
Recent polls in the seven core swing states show an astonishingly tight presidential race: 124 out of the last 321 polls conducted in those states — almost 39% — show margins of 1 percentage point or less.
Harris leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.
FiveThirtyEight currently shows Trump leading in four of those seven states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania), but by less than a single point in Pennsylvania. Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, but again, it’s by less than one percent.