Should We Trust the Polls for the Midterms?
Based on months of polling, Democrats have every reason to be optimistic about their chances in tomorrow’s midterm elections. That said, they have plenty of reasons to be wary of the accuracy of pollsters. More at CNN.
Overall, the numbers point to the same likely outcome that polls have indicated for months: that despite a strong economy with Republicans in control of Capitol Hill and the White House, Democrats are favored on generic ballots. But the Democratic lead in a generic race has tightened over a few months ago… As always, the election result will depend on voter turnout and both polls found high enthusiasm and interest in the election among voters.
Haunted by memories of 2016, liberals around the country are riven with anxiety in the campaign’s homestretch. They’re suspicious of favorable polls and making election night contingency plans in case their worst fears come true. Some report literal nightmares about a Democratic wipeout.
“We’re kind of just in the bed-wetting phase now,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, a Hillary Clinton campaign alumnus who spent election night 2016 in Clinton’s Manhattan war room.
2016 is widely taken to be an election that invalidated the polls and revealed how inaccurate they are. In fact, the opposite is the case. The national surveys were closer to an accurate prediction of the national election outcome in 2016 than they were in 2012. The problem in 2016 was not at the national level but at the state level. In many states, there weren’t any polls or any good polls. Hillary Clinton’s campaign did not conduct standard surveys in a number of states that turned out to be crucial in the three weeks before the election.