Can Democrats Trust the Polls?

According to recent polls, Trump would lose to Biden by a significant margin if the election was held today. According to several polls, Biden’s lead is higher than 10 percentage points, but after Trump’s surprising 2016 win, Democrats are afraid to get their hopes up. More at The Hill.

Liberal schadenfreude — even in combination with Trump’s own self-inflicted wounds — will not by itself win the 2020 election… The race remains too close for comfort. In some polls, Trump trails Biden by as few as seven points. They appear to be tied in Ohio, and Biden’s edge is within the margin of error in Pennsylvania and Arizona.

…some people have dismissed Biden’s lead by pointing out that Hillary Clinton also led in most polls of the 2016 election (Clinton, obviously, ended up losing to Trump). While this is true, Clinton’s lead was much smaller.

Everything seems to be going Democrats’ way. But many in the party just can’t get 2016 off their minds. President Donald Trump is down or within striking distance in nearly every battleground state… Some Democrats are even beginning to feel confident about their prospects this fall.

Yet many can’t let themselves enjoy it.

Why Are COVID-19 Deaths Declining While Cases Are Increasing?

On Wednesday America saw its highest single-day number of new cases of COVID-19, leading many to worry that the spread of the virus is only getting worse. Others point to the declining number of deaths, suggesting that the new case numbers aren’t telling the whole story. More at CNN.

This could be in part because there is a delay between being diagnosed with the virus, and dying from it; we just have to wait and see on that front. But it’s also because the rate at which people are dying really depends on who in the population is adding to the case count. In at least a couple states, they tend to be younger. In California, where cases are on the rise, almost half of new cases are in people under the age of 34…

Trump is not wrong about the nation’s mortality continuing to decline, but that’s not dispositive. It can take several weeks for an infection to result in death, so a surge in confirmed cases this month could mean a surge in deaths next month.

Our Coronavirus testing is so much greater (25 million tests) and so much more advanced, that it makes us look like we have more cases, especially proportionally, than other countries. My message on that is very clear!

Will Annexation Isolate Israel?

If Israel goes forward with plans to annex portions of the West Bank, much of the international community will react with condemnation. Should fears of international isolation from the European Union or American Democrats influence Israel’s policy decisions?

It’s time we look out for ourselves… Naturally, the international community will oppose such moves, as it does whenever Israel prioritizes its own interests.

It will delight the Boycott, Sanctions and Divestment (BDS) movement, which will resonantly depict Israel as an apartheid regime imposing two sets of laws on the Israeli and Palestinian populations under its overall West Bank control, and will enjoy far greater success in its efforts to isolate Israel diplomatically, economically and culturally.

Israel’s move would be broadly denounced as illegal, potentially leading to international isolation. And the resulting furor, they say, could distract from efforts to intensify pressure on the country Mr. Netanyahu has long portrayed as the greatest threat facing Israel and the world: Iran.

How Should We Understand the Bubba Wallace Scandal?

It’s not a simple story: After pushing for NASCAR to ban the confederate flag at all racing events, the league’s only black racer, Bubba Wallace, discovered a noose hanging in his garage. An FBI investigation revealed later that the noose was merely a door-pull that had been there for some time. More at ESPN.

One thing that the outcome of the FBI’s investigation doesn’t change is this: That anyone is even debating the presence of Confederate battle flags at major sporting events is indicative of how power and privilege have hijacked the most basic terms of the national debate on race.

It wasn’t a hoax, and it wasn’t a staged incident… Yet that hasn’t stopped pockets of NASCAR’s fan base from attacking, criticizing and demeaning Wallace on social media.

…the position that Wallace has found himself in over the past three weeks isn’t easy either. The burden to speak out against racial injustice is a shared one for Black athletes in other sports. Wallace is alone at the top of American auto racing.

Is Mel Gibson Canceled or Not?

Actor and director Mel Gibson is denying allegations that he called Winona Ryder an anti-semitic slur. This is hardly the first time Mel Gibson has been embroiled in a controversy regarding his anti-semitic views, leading many Jews to ask: why hasn’t he been canceled already? More at BBC.

He was once one of Hollywood’s most bankable stars, an unrivalled A-lister who took hits like Braveheart and Lethal Weapon to the top of the box office charts. But since Mel Gibson’s career was mired by a string of abusive incidents and vile anti-Semitic remarks, he’s landed in an unofficial movie jail – with producers too anxious to go near him.

…racists and racism apologists needn’t worry — Gibson still gets work… So don’t believe for a second that “cancel culture” is anything but a myth. And don’t you dare tell me that it “ruins men’s lives.”

Mel Gibson was canceled – and for good reason… But Ryder’s resurfaced accusations of anti-Semitism remind us that Gibson’s comeback was never deserved… Mel Gibson never hoped for forgiveness – just that the public would eventually forget about his anti-Semitism, racism and domestic violence. All Winona Ryder did was jog our memories.

Can Any of These Conspiracy Theories Explain All the Fireworks?

Throughout many American cities, reports have been made of fireworks going off in the streets. Internet sleuths have generated plenty of conspiracy theories to explain the phenomenon.

Some believe that police have planted these fireworks so that they’ll have an excuse to show up in brown and Black communities; many say they’ve heard “reports” that “random people”—the implication is that they could be plainclothes cops—have given citizens professional-grade fireworks…

But on the internet, where anxiety is profitable and dramatic claims are shareable ones, a fireworks-truther community has taken shape within a matter of days. There are so many fireworks, for such long stretches of time, they must be coordinated. They look expensive. Could they be a government plot? Are the police punishing people for protesting? Signaling the coming of a civil war?

“Boompilling” is apparently a thing, according to BuzzFeed News’ Craig Silverman. The term is a play on “red-pilling” — a “Matrix” reference and internet-speak for a political turn to the right. But in this case, it refers to people who are convinced that increased fireworks activity is the work of a master plan by a nefarious, all-reaching government.

Today’s Hot Issues

Can Democrats Trust the Polls? Why Are COVID-19 Deaths Declining While Cases Are Increasing? Will Annexation Isolate Israel? How Should We Understand the Bubba Wallace Scandal? Is Mel Gibson Canceled or Not? Can Any of These Conspiracy Theories Explain All the Fireworks?