Can Russia Save Israel From War with Iran?
As tensions rise between Israel and Iran in Syria, the possibility of war may rest in the hands of Vladamir Putin. With Russian influence eclipsing the U.S. in Syria, the conflict between Israel and Iran may become the first test of exactly how, and for whom, that influence is put to use. More at Bloomberg.
The main problem Israel had — and still has — is the Russian presence. How long will Putin restrain himself when confronted with Israel’s policy? Is Israel approaching Russia’s red line, risking real friction with the superpower that has located itself along Israel’s northern borders? Based on the laconic statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Israel might be.
Russia, uniquely, is in a position to push the Iranian vector off its current trajectory and prevent an all-out war. Its own interests inside Syria indicate that this is something it should want to do.
But reality does not conform to theory, and whether Moscow will take action to rein in the Iranians, and what price it will ask for doing so, are the reasons Netanyahu meets – and talks – so often with Putin. Whether or not Israel is on the cusp of a new war in the North is to a large extent dependent on decisions the Russians will now make.
Russia merely does what’s good for Russia. Israel’s problem is not Russia – it is the absence of counterweight to Russia. Israel is powerful. It is powerful enough to deal with its neighbors. But it is not a superpower. Dealing with Russia and taming its ambitions is a job for a superpower.
Until not long ago, Israel had a deal with the US: We take care of the neighbors, you deal with the problems that only a superpower can deal with. Is this deal still in place? If it is, the US must act. If it isn’t, Israel must recalibrate its assumptions, and reformulate its policies. This will not be easy, nor pleasant. Still, Israel can’t operate in the world assuming that the US is the counterweight to Russia when it is not.