Does Mohammed bin Salman Care What the World Thinks of Him?
As the world awaits further details regarding the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, politicians and businesspeople are rethinking their ties with Saudi Arabia. It is widely believed that Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul for his critiques of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (aka MBS). MBS, who once had a reputation as a reformer, has been trying to lure investors to Saudi Arabia. These plans may now be foiled. But will he lose Trump as an ally? And further, does he care? More at CNBC.
…the prince likely calculates that if he does show significant regret over Khashoggi, he will be showing weakness to his domestic opponents, perhaps even giving them grounds for a coup attempt. Still, there’s a broader context here to which the U.S. must pay close heed. Some nations haven’t been criticizing bin Salman over the Khashoggi incident. Specifically, Russia. Vladimir Putin has always seen the alignment of Saudi interests under Russia as the centerpiece of his Middle Eastern strategy. And if the West overplays its hand in pressuring bin Salman over the Khashoggi incident, it will risk seeing him realign with Russia. That would be a disaster for Saudi Arabia’s long-term political reform.
Now, Saudi Arabia is on the pillory and could well be grouped together with other rogue states that jail critics or even murder them abroad. That is a situation that even Trump finds unacceptable. Saudi Arabia’s power in the Arab and Muslim world is greatly dependent upon US support. Without it, Saudi Arabia will not be able to keep up its hard line against Iran. A weakened Saudi Arabia would also be unable to help facilitate the US approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Saudis know that eventually you’ll probably see whatever evidence Turkey has regarding Khashoggi’s disappearance, but they think you don’t like admitting you are friends with the wrong crowd; you said you love North Korean leader Kim Jong Un but he hasn’t earnestly committed to denuclearization. You said our relationship with Putin is fine even though he still poses a threat to our elections and our democracy. Similarly, you visited Saudi Arabia as your first foreign trip and touted your relationship with the kingdom. So, expect the Saudis to privately play up with you, how close you have become, especially compared to your predecessor, and the great strides you are making on countering Iran, which is a shared priority.